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Archive for September, 2008

Sep
30

What was it the great Yogu Berra said, “It ain’t over till it’s over”? Well, that’s very true. And for the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins, the Major league baseball season ain’t over yet.

Thanks to the White Sox beating the Detroit Tigers on Monday afternoon/evening (thanks for a rain delay) there will be a one game playoff to determine which team goes on to play the Tampa Bay Rays.

It wasn’t easy for the White Sox either. Early it looked like they might lose the game. They were down 2-1 in the bottom of the sixth and Freddy Garcia was pitching a gem for the Tigers. But then he walked a batter, pulled muscle in his shoulder or his neck, and then Tigers bullpen imploded. Without a hit in the inning, the White Sox tied up the game and then loaded the bases. Yes, the Tigers gave-up four walks and a few wild pitches in the inning. Then Alexei Ramirez stepped the plate and hit a grand slam on the firts pitch hew saw.

Ball game.

For the Tigers it was a fitting end to a debacle of the season. A season that had so much promise back in April. And while every part of this ball club failed, the bull pen was personally responsible for losing nearly 20 games after holding the lead past the 6th inning. Win just those games, and the Tigers would have pressed for a playoff spot.

But the Tigers aren’t the story. At least not on this day.

The story is the one game playoff to be played between the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins. While the Twins can’t be happy with a one game playoff being forced, they have to at least be happy that the Tigers played the White Sox even for nearly six innnings. So the White Sox have to be a bit fatigued.

Who will win this game?

I’m going to stick with my prediction back when the White Sox traded for Ken Griffey Jr. I think that was a bad acquisition and I think the Twins will go to the playoffs because of it.

Sep
30

All of us gamblers would love a guaranteed roulette winning strategy and these are spread all over the internet. Often they’ll come in expensive ebooks or reports but just as likely in a simple web page leading to a casino. In my experience in most instance these secret strategies are almost always based on the Martingale system.

The Martingale system was first used by gamblers in 18th Century France and in fact there are many variances. The simplest one though I’m sure you will have come across before. The idea is best explained by a toss of the coin – you bet on heads initially and if you lose you continue to back ‘heads’ but double your stake each time. This in theory would eventually lead to a win and a recover of all the previous stakes. In practice it usually leads to very large losses as the stake exponentially rises.

The Martingale system is actually loosely based on a mathematical misunderstanding called the “Gamblers Fallacy” which basically concludes that past variations can affect future results. Or in English if heads has come up 10 times in a row – the next toss is more likely to come up tails – of course this is not true as the previous ten results have no bearing on the next toss at all. Even if the ball on a casino wheel landed in red 100 times – the odds are still 50/50 (minus the 0 or house edge) on the next spin.

Even if you believe in the martingale system or some of it’s strange variants – it would be difficult to apply nowadays as even if you could afford it most casinos have limits on each bet which would prevent it. Most casinos have never actively deterred using Martingale though simply because they don’t lose by it. Each roulette winning strategy should be studied in the cold light of statistics before you spend any money on it.

Of course statistics can only really be applied to the above situations where an event is truly random – the spin of a roulette wheel has so many outside factors affecting it that it extremely close to being completely random. An online roulette wheel is a different matter though as the spin is controlled by a computer.

Computers have always had a problem generating random numbers purely because they are programmed and so are always following deterministic code. All online casinos are run via computer algorithms and therefore are only as random as the underlying software.
I have been recently testing a computer program which predicts the most likely winning bets on online roulette. It’s looking like developing in to a rather useful roulette winning strategy or at the minimum an extra income for me.

If you are interested in makine some money from online roulette it may be worth check out here. Read about it here – Roulette Killer

All the best
John

Sep
30

If you enjoy gambling chances are at some point you’ll have visited casinos. They are places I really enjoy and have visited them all over the world. Online roulette gambling now attempts to bring this experience into the comfort of you home.

Now to be honest the experience of an online casino doesn’t really compare in my eyes – the glitzy glamour of a casino can’t be replaced by a monitor and some terrible background music piped through your speakers. Nevertheless it can be an extremely fun experience.

A note about odds and chance
When you visit a casino and play real roulette – there are certain things that you take for granted.

For instance you know you will be at a disadvantage because the zero on the wheel ensures the bank has the advantage but remember the more slots the bigger your disadvantage – American roulette wheels generally have two ‘0’s as well.

The main advantage though is your game is completely at the whim to the fickle finger of chance and luck. The spin of a roulette wheel is subject to so many random factors that the result (if not tampered with obviously) is completely unknown to both bank and player. You can use the stupidest casino system in the world but if you’re lucky – you’ll win !

The online casino though is operated through computer software and complicated algorithms – they will never be as completely random as real-life casinos. That’s not to say it should affect the player – the pseudo random numbers that are generated are pretty close to being completely random. Your success still ultimately depends on the virtual spin of a wheel. If you pick a large respected online casino you’ll be fine – an honest casino always makes money anyway whereas the merest sniff of a suspect algorithm can send an online casino out of business.

Watch out for suspicious tactics like a free play mode where you always seem to win though.

There are many people who make their living nowadays in online roulette gambling – although I’m not sure it’s a lifestyle I’d enjoy. The simple fact that online roulette is governed by a computer algorithm has led people to investigate weaknesses in algorithms that allows the player some advantages.

I am currently checking one such product that analyses and predicts the most profitable bets. It only works on outside bets – that is unfortunately it won’t predict specific numbers. It is very simple to use with any online casino though.
If you’d like to read my thoughts on this software product which promises to make online roulette gambling extremely profitable – it’s called Roulette killer and you can read them here.

Roulette Killer

Good luck
John

Sep
29

Neither of these two sides are tipped to flirt with the automatic positions, yet one thing they can both do is at least attempt the play offs. After Cardiff’s F.A Cup story last season there’s no doubt they have the quality to push for the top six, while Chris Coleman’s transfer activity has transformed Coventry and they now look a genuine top half side.

Home side Cardiff have had a mixed start to this season and currently find themselves sat 11th in the league, although just one point outside the play offs. However, the last week hasn’t been a good one for Bluebirds fans, with a defeat to bitter rivals Swansea being followed by a 2-1 loss to Birmingham. One thing that has seemed to be a problem for them has been scoring goals and despite his £300k move from Wolves during the summer, striker Jay Bothroyd hasn’t got off to the best of starts and doesn’t have a goal to his name yet. Ross McCormack is the only man who has consistently found the net but with the Bluebirds scoring just three goals in their last six matches; he needs some support and fast if Dave Jones wants to keep in touch with the play offs.

Visitors Coventry have also had a mixed start yet sit just one place out of the top six. Despite adding the likes of Clinton Morrison and Freddy Eastwood to an already talented strike force, goals haven’t been too frequent in this team either and they’ve only scored three in their last five outings. However, at the back they look much stronger than last season and in Elliott Ward and Scott Dann they seem to have a formidable centre half pairing. Having faced promotion hopefuls Sheffield United and QPR in the last couple of weeks and gained four points manager Chris Coleman will be satisfied, although just like Dave Jones, he’ll know his side need to become more lethal in front of goal if they’re to cement a play off spot.

Home side Cardiff will be without midfielder Paul Parry for this one, although Stephen McPhail has completed his suspension and will probably act as a replacement. Elsewhere, Darren Purse is unlikely to start after a poor game against Birmingham, which paves the way for Gabor Gyepes to come in. Sky Blues boss Coleman has no worries although will probably make changes from the side that drew with Blackpool.

These are sides that have good squads and should be looking for high top half places. However, the lack of goals amongst these two will be a big problem and due to this, we can’t see this one being anything special. We’ll go for a 0-0, which wouldn’t be much help to either manager.

Sep
29

Both of these sides were relegated from the Premiership last season although the bookies predictions couldn’t have been any wider apart under the circumstances. Birmingham were, and still are, classed as clear favorites for promotion while the Odds were slightly more reserved for Derby and no-one had any idea how they would fare after their disastrous season in the top flight.

The Rams brought umpteen players in during the close season and by the looks of things, it took a good month before their new look side began to gel. A 2-0 defeat to Barnsley at the end of August prompted some quarters into suggesting that Paul Jewell’s time was up, yet he’s completely turned things around and they now find themselves unbeaten in four games. Impressive draws against Swansea and Cardiff were sandwiched between even better wins over promotion hopefuls Sheffield United and QPR, so the signs are definitely there that things are turning round. As it stands they only sit in 17th on nine points but with most of those points coming in the last couple of weeks, things are looking up for The Rams and their supporters are now optimistic.

As for Birmingham, they suffered a shock defeat to Blackpool ten days ago yet bounced back well by beating Cardiff 2-1 at Ninian Park. There’s absolutely no doubt that The Blues have the best squad on paper in the division as well as a manager in Alex McLeish who is highly respected in the game. As it stands, it looks like they’re living up to their reputation as promotion favorites and currently lie in second place. Unlike league leaders Wolves they don’t seem to score bucket loads of goals, but by the looks of things the foundations are well in place for the St Andrews outfit to meet the bookies expectations and gain promotion comfortably.

The home side seem to look good on the injuries front as well and have been boosted by the return of Kris Commons. However, after Derby’s recent good form, Commons is not guaranteed a place and will have to battle with Stephen Pearson for the left midfield slot. The visitors will have to be without Damien Johnson and Stephen Kelly who are struggling with back and thigh problems respectively but other than that, Alex McLeish has a strong squad to choose from. Mehdi Nafti returns from his suspension but after their 2-1 win over Cardiff, McLeish may want to make as few changes as possible.

With Derby in such good form and playing in front of their own fans, they must have some sort of chance against Birmingham in this one. Even though The Blues look to be well on course for the Promised Land, Derby are rising and don’t be surprised if they manage a draw out of this one – 2-2.